...I don't know and I am not the expert. I remember when Euro was first released as a currency I was in the UK and purchased Euros at a forex counter at a London Railway station. I had at that time 1 Euro coins from all the initial Euro issuing countries along with an album full of Euro coins...When a Euro became more expensive than a dollar for the same amount of Indian Rupees somewhere people thought that this is a new economy that has emerged that will be the next US. I was frantically collecting the older avatars - the Marks, Guilders, Franks and others in the hope of waiting for the time when these will become antique pieces. I am still waiting for the pound to go as I have a separate album of pound coins.
What is happening now? The Euro coins that I collected themselves are under a question mark. People are speaking of throwing Greece out of Europe. Ireland, the Celtic tiger that was established to pull outsourcing from the developing world is considered to be in line. Spain, Portugal, Italy - the mighty colonial powers that established European rule in Latin America, North Africa and parts of Asia are finding themselves on the throes of insolvency.
Europe and Euro was meant to make the world bi-polar in the backdrop of the disintegrated USSR. For some reason everybody including the Europeans are looking towards China - whose model of governance, economy, methods of trading, military maneuver and everything is shrouded in mystery which even on the right path of growth, prosperity and supremacy seems to be wrapped in carefully propagated media propaganda.
The European countries of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are seminal in their own ways. The Greeks were the identity of all Europeans in all of ancient India - Indians always thought Yavanas to be Greeks and that Alexander was Greek - irrespective of whether Macedonia is Greek or not. Italy was the home of the most powerful of the Roman Emperors till ultimately the Austrians and Germans and others became the seats of the holy Roman Empire. Spain and Portugal colonized entire Latin America and changed the cultures of these continents for ever. Ethnically, Italians, Irish and Spaniards form the bulk of the catholic mass of the US and possibly many white protestants too.
Europe is a great concept that integrates many economies that form a common source and market for all kinds of goods and services. The idea is to be the centre of the civilized world, somebody that every body is to look up to. It is not just an economic concept but a concept that encompasses grandness of history, a vast geographic space and more importantly a symbol of stability and cohesion, a Pax Europeana or Pax Europicana in the post Pax-Americana world.
The UK is living like the nut out of a pear fruit being an integral part of Europe but still being detached. Perhaps weighing its options for integrating with their European equals or being the Switzerland between the US and Europe or an American outpost. Whatever be the case, one cannot imagine a Europe without these ancient countries in the Union - UK being UK the way they always are in Europe and the rest of the world which ever way they ultimately decide to fall. The identify of Europe is incomplete without a Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. Ireland is the last frontier that has to be maintained. One cannot leave out a bulk of Europe be it these countries or others in East, west, north or south of it and usurp the European identity. It might be a little too late to roll back the European experiment. Any exception is bound to become a precedent and escapism will not build empires.
It is for this reason that I believe Greece will eventually be bailed out.I cant imagine a Europe that is not Greek or Italian on the same lines of a Latin American who cannot imagine a Europe that is not Spanish or Portuguese or the Yankees who cannot trace their lineage across the pond - I don't think the British can detach themselves from European identity over time. Germany, France and UK may still be powerful economies but they will never be Europe on their own.
The European economy has to bail out these countries irrespective of whether they are in or out of Europe. A Greek tragedy is a European tragedy whether they have a seat in Brussels or not. Germans have to pay which ever way if they are the only way. This is the price to pay for the benefits of leadership.
So is it a good idea to do bottom fishing in the market now...I am sure there are other factors. Indian economy catches cold when anybody in this globe sneezes even if it is a coup in Vanuatu. It would be interesting to see the Chinese economy and its politics. I will wait forever like I have always done. I can see books being written about Europe perhaps as the new generation arthashastra the great book of politics and economics of Chanakya when the contours of Indian Empire was being built in the 1st Century after Alexander the great's invasion of Northern India or a book on what could have been done better for the next experiment..
No comments:
Post a Comment