...As the Crow Flies...Rajat Gupta et all.

It pained to see Rajat Gupta being photographed like a criminal. It is not because I condone criminal behaviour but because his has been a remarkable life. He lost his parents in his teens, went on to become a top notch corporate leader influencing lives of millions and making billions. Now without prejudicing the eventual outcome he is at the risk of loosing it all.

I cannot help but reminisce a conversation that I had with a colleague and a good friend during lunch one fine day a couple of years ago or more, when he asked about how to safe guard our savings with all that is happening around - wars for land, energy security and pride or even against tyranny, market collisions of Rajat Gupta kind or of Harshad Mehta's, global crisis due to over zealous and half knowledge deals, natural calamities, road widening public projects for social good and personal bad and the likes and every thing around. There is absolutely no guarantee of what is in store tomorrow he said.

He had and still has a point but are there precedents that we can refer to. The news papers and media channels in India are still full of stories of a mining baron who bought a few islands for a getaway along with a few hundreds of billions of US dollars in foreign banks currently in a prison awaiting trial ironically in a city that is in a turmoil between people of noble ideologies unrelated to his travails - industrial output and real estate prices have crashed there. One colonel who ruled  over his generals died, shot in the head and all without trial along with a couple or more of his children and some are still still on the run. His rule for 42 years did not influence the outcome or was it the outcome. Another was tried and hanged and his sons were murdered in cold blood. A great dictator committed suicide in his bunker and his followers were either jailed or lived in hiding all their lives in far away lands.  These are endless stories. These were powerful people with great authority and control. Well go further back, Shah Jahan the builder of Taj Mahal a great Moghul was jailed by his son Aurangzeb. And Aurangzeb the great emperor who extended the Moghul boundaries to the farthest distances and kept defending it till his end could not leave his empire to a heir worth remembering.

Look at another perspective, have people saved successfully, yes of course kings and royal families have ruled for generations. The Nehru family has been in power from before the time of Jawahar Lal Nehru, now in the fifth generation post Independence but look at the tragedy they have faced. Nehru lost his wife at a young age, motherless Indira lost a son in front of her eyes and the other, the gentleman Rajeev poor chap. Of course they still have the power. There are Business families that have survived generations (or the first generation successes) and still doing well but with severe individual cost and prices being paid in every generation like any other.

What about the real good ones, the real Gandhi family is hardly heard of except for one who is a very minor politician. Another makes some noise on TV but we don't know where he is. Gandhi was himself shot and the father of the nation had difficult relationship with his real sons almost like any normal family. Aung San Sui Chi is still under some form of arrest and her family ....? I remember reading the speech of Corozona Aquino in the Philippine parliament about her husband Benigno Aquino Jr who died under Marcos. All were from privileged backgrounds. Cory became the president but mourned all through. The speech about the lamp burning but giving out light to others is emotional reading and inspirational for the world but what was it for her.  Even without Ferdinand, Marcoses are still well to do in and out of courts. Princess Diana's fairy tale marriage did not last not did she.

The rich and popular have their problems what about the not so rich and the unknowns. Are they any better. Rural India is full of stories of pots of Gold Coins and Jewellery being discovered when digging the ground for house foundation or for wells - now money spinners for soothsayes for those looking for shortcuts to success. The pots were hidden there by their people who earned it centuries ago, safe guarding it from theives and dacoits of those days or hiding it from the King's tax men. Who got it in the end, not them? Even the not famous have unexplained twists and turns, they have sudden fall from grace, they have financial calamities and all - except they are rarely reported individually. Like the rich and famous there are some happy ones too. Seems like it is the same brush whether one is on TV or not.

Well my friend's question remains unanswered. Which is the safe bond, where is the safe land, which is the safe bank. Philosophies are replete with the futility of the material wealth and the need to earn spiritual wealth. The problem with spiritualism is that it can never be proved in a life time and there is no recollection of the previous. Can one earn and also be happy. Should one invest in society like the kings so that we can keep getting back from society when there is a need. So what is the answer?

I don't know mate. Do you want to save for you or for the next seven generations. Do you want to be remembered as John F Kennedy, Elvis Prestly, Mahatma Gandhi, Micheal Jackson, Rajeev Gandhi, Rajat Gupta, Abdul Kalam, Steve Jobs...There are others too who are not out in the open but you know the point I am trying to make.

One thing is for certain, all these great people sent either politics or economy or both into some form of spiral either positive or negative and in the process reduced the purchasing power of money in the long run. These people have travelled more, learnt more than those who are not in the news and have impacted more lives either for the good or for the bad. If the famous are looked as the powerful, wealthy or flamboyant the communists can point fingers but if we attribute knowledge to what they have gained few can question. So is it knowledge that we have to assimilate in pots?

At a personal level though despite the thousand and odd miles that they travelled the real distance that they have moved, you know from where to where I mean  - is like they say...as the crow flies....despite all the magic that they created good or bad, back or white.

Aadhar Unique ID - India's Social Security Number - A new impetus to domestic industry

The process is underway to provide the billion Indians their new identity. For those who don't know, Nandan Nilekani who was once the CEO at Infosys (who I should say I admire) has been drafted by the government to arrange this. Naturally there are all kinds of opinion about every aspect of this program and the number itself. What however I am interested is the new industry that this can create within the Indian economy.

One of the purposes of this card or the number as indicated by  the government is to send subsidies directly to people rather than subsidize the goods and services. It is like you purchase diesel and record your Aadhar number. If this number is eligible for subsidy check your bank account. You should have the subsidy amount credited. A little hard to believe but that is what they say.

Now here enters the Business. The money is routed through the banks. These banks will now be routing millions if not billions of dolor equivalent of Indian Rupees. The banking system will now be awash with short term deposits. They will face the problem of low revenue customers and the need to optimize real estate with large number of low value transactions. This will spurt new banking channels and instruments - stored value cards, optimization of ATMs for the less literate, cards and plastic money in smaller towns and villages, swiping machines and what and all.

Pals, there is money to be made here. If indeed money is given as the government is stating at least in the initial term there will be a spurt of liquidity in the retail market till such a time that the beneficiaries will already account for it in the spending when the extent of liquidity induced per day into the retail market will stabilize. Now every thing will require accounting and reporting even if it will be a new cloth store in Ralegaon Siddi-after good food after all people will attempt to look good. Every body will get money more in the rural areas and they have to adopt IT computing power.

...Thus the real Indian domestic market for IT will emerge is my humble submission.

Markets Crashing - Eurozone Debt - Where is Europe Heading?

...I don't know and I am not the expert. I remember when Euro was first released as a currency I was in the UK and purchased Euros at a forex counter at a London Railway station. I had at that time 1 Euro coins from all the initial Euro issuing countries along with an album full of Euro coins...When a Euro became more expensive than a dollar for the same amount of Indian Rupees somewhere people thought that this is a new economy that has emerged that will be the next US. I was frantically collecting the older avatars - the Marks, Guilders, Franks and others in the hope of waiting for the time when these will become antique pieces. I am still waiting for the pound to go as I have a separate album of pound coins.

What is happening now? The Euro coins that I collected themselves are under a question mark. People are speaking of throwing Greece out of Europe. Ireland, the Celtic tiger that was established to pull outsourcing from the developing world is considered to be in line. Spain, Portugal, Italy - the mighty colonial powers that established European rule in Latin America, North Africa and parts of Asia are finding themselves on the throes of insolvency. 

Europe and Euro was meant to make the world bi-polar in the backdrop of the disintegrated USSR. For some reason everybody including the Europeans are looking towards China - whose model of governance, economy, methods of trading, military maneuver and everything is shrouded in mystery which even on the right path of growth, prosperity and supremacy seems to be wrapped in carefully propagated media propaganda.

The European countries of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are seminal in their own ways. The Greeks were the identity of all Europeans in all of ancient India - Indians always thought Yavanas to be Greeks and that Alexander was Greek - irrespective of whether Macedonia is Greek or not. Italy was the home of the most powerful of the Roman Emperors till ultimately the Austrians and Germans and others became the seats of the holy Roman Empire. Spain and Portugal colonized entire Latin America and changed the cultures of these continents for ever. Ethnically, Italians, Irish and Spaniards form the bulk of the catholic mass of the US and possibly many white protestants too.

Europe is a great concept that integrates many economies that form a common source and market for all kinds of goods and services. The idea is to be the centre of the civilized world, somebody that every body is to look up to. It is not just an economic concept but a concept that encompasses grandness of history, a vast geographic space and more importantly a symbol of stability and cohesion, a Pax Europeana or Pax Europicana in the post Pax-Americana world.

The UK is living like the nut out of a pear fruit being an integral part of Europe but still being detached. Perhaps weighing its options for integrating with their European equals or being the Switzerland between the US and Europe or an American outpost. Whatever be the case, one cannot imagine a Europe without these ancient countries in the Union - UK being UK the way they always are in Europe and the rest of the world which ever way they ultimately decide to fall. The identify of Europe is incomplete without a Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. Ireland is the last frontier that has to be maintained. One cannot leave out a bulk of Europe be it these countries or others in East, west, north or south of it and usurp the European identity. It might be a little too late to roll back the European experiment. Any exception is bound to become a precedent and escapism will not build empires.

It is for this reason that I believe Greece will eventually be bailed out.I cant imagine a Europe that is not Greek or Italian on the same lines of a Latin American who cannot imagine a Europe that is not Spanish or Portuguese or the Yankees who cannot trace their lineage across the pond - I don't think the British can detach themselves from European identity over time. Germany, France and UK may still be powerful economies but they will never be Europe on their own.

The European economy has to bail out these countries irrespective of whether they are in or out of Europe. A Greek tragedy is a European tragedy whether they have a seat in Brussels or not. Germans have to pay which ever way if they are the only way. This is the price to pay for the benefits of leadership.

So is it a good idea to do bottom fishing in the market now...I am sure there are other factors. Indian economy catches cold when anybody in this globe sneezes even if it is a coup in Vanuatu. It would be interesting to see the Chinese economy and its politics. I will wait forever like I have always done.  I can see books being written about Europe perhaps as the new generation arthashastra the great book of politics and economics of Chanakya when the contours of Indian Empire was being built in the 1st Century after Alexander the great's invasion of Northern India or a book on what could have been done better for the next experiment..